Weather

Friday, May 16, 2014

Expect a wet long weekend


Pincher Creek forecast issued by Environment Canada at 4:00 pm MDT Friday May 16, 2014:
  • Tonight, 16 May - Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers overnight. Low plus 5.
  • Saturday, 17 May - Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 15. UV index 4 or moderate.
  • Saturday night, 17 May - Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers early in the evening then partly cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the evening. Wind west 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low 6.
  • Sunday, 18 May - Cloudy. High 14.
  • Monday, 19 May - Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. High 9.
Click here for the most current Environment Canada forecasts.

Special weather statement
issued Friday, May 16, 2014 at 3:45 pm:

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement regarding the precipitation expected this long weekend:
  • Between 30 and 75 mm (up to 100mm) possible from Airdrie up to Grande Cache – heaviest amounts expected in the Nordegg and Rocky Mountain House regions
  • Between 25 and 40 (up to 50mm) possible Calgary south.
The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur Saturday evening into Sunday. Environment and Sustainable Resource Development is in close contact with weather forecasting agencies, including the Alberta Forestry and Emergency Response Division and Environment Canada. Detailed weather forecasts and current weather information are available from:

Alberta Forestry and Emergency Response Division:
http://esrd.alberta.ca/wildfire/fire-weather/default.aspx

Environment Canada:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html

River Conditions

Preliminary model runs show that 0.5 to 1.5 meter rises are possible in many of the rivers in the advisory area based on the current weather forecasts. Localized overland flooding is possible with the heavy rain but no major flooding is expected.

The following advisories have been issued:

North Saskatchewan River Basin:

A High Streamflow Advisory has been issued for:
North Saskatchewan River upstream of the City of Edmonton
Clearwater River
Brazeau River
Ram River

Red Deer River Basin:

A Flood Watch has been issued for the Little Red Deer River.  A 1 meter water level rise is possible along the Little Red Deer River which has the potential to cause localized low-lying flooding of parts of Red Lodge Provincial Park and the Westward Ho campground.

A High Streamflow Advisory has been issued for Red Deer River and its tributaries upstream of the Dickson Dam

Bow River Basin:

A High Streamflow Advisory has been issued for:
  • Bow River and its tributaries upstream of the Bearspaw Dam
  • Elbow River
  • Fish Creek
  • Threepoint Creek
  • Sheep River
  • Highwood River
Creeks and rivers In the Highwood and Sheep River Basins have the potential to rise between 1 and 1.5 meters based on the current forecast. Localized overland flooding is possible with the heavy rain but no major flooding is expected.

Rapid changes in water level are possible in the small ungauged creeks flowing into the Bow River in and around Banff, Exshaw and Canmore. No major flooding is expected at this time but local authorities will be monitoring the situation and liaising with the River Forecast Centre.

Water levels may rise through the City of Calgary but are not expected to be any greater than an average June water level. As such an advisory has not been issued for this portion of the Bow.

Water levels are normal to above normal in the Peace, Athabasca, Battle, North Saskatchewan, Red Deer, Bow, Oldman, and South Saskatchewan River and Sounding Creek basins and normal to below normal in the Slave, Beaver, Hay and Milk River basins.

River conditions across the province will continue to be monitored and advisories will be issued as required.

Preliminary Flow Data
Real-time precipitation and river data are available at:
http://environment.alberta.ca/apps/basins/default.aspx

All flow data posted on the AESRD website is provisional and preliminary. Environment Canada’s Water Survey of Canada is the official owner of this information and as such it is part of their mandate to validate the flow values and publish the finalized maximum instantaneous peak discharge and daily discharge values for all locations in Canada on their website - http://www.ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/default.asp. The validation of this data does not commence until the end of each calendar year.

Extreme caution should be taken when referring to the data posted to the AESRD website - there is a disclaimer at the top of each data table outlining the need for caution. This is particularly true for large flow events when the gauge is affected by debris, damage, sediment in the river, re-alignment of the main river channel and over bank flow which cannot be measured.

Flood Hazard Identification Program

Flooding can cause damage to property, hardship to people and in extreme events, loss of life. To assist Albertans in mitigating potential flood losses, Environment and Sustainable Resource Development manages the production of flood hazard studies and mapping under the provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program.

Flood Hazard mapping from this program can be accessed through the following link:
http://environment.alberta.ca/01655.html

Water Supply Report

Water Supply Outlooks are published incrementally as new data analyses are available. The most recent Water Supply Outlook is now available at: http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/WaterSupply/index.html.

Precipitation data and maps for the Water Supply Report are published monthly at:
http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/reports/index.html.

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